Rocks and Water

Holocene Seismicity in Puget Sound: A Statistical Perspective

I presented work done with Brian Sherrod (USGS Seattle) on paleoseismologic data in the Puget Sound region of Washington at AGU. In this work, I take ~30 paleoearthquakes and estimate their magnitudes with new methods that incorporate both rupture length and measured offsets, and then calculate recurrence interval probability distributions ...

Earthquake recurrence and survival analysis: How long should we wait for an overdue earthquake?

Earlier this spring, Dr. Tom Jordan of USC and the Southern California Earthquake Center caused a bit of a stir by claiming that the southern San Andreas fault was 'locked, loaded and ready to roll'. This was interpreted by many as meaning that an earthquake on the fault is 'overdue', although it's not clear what 'overdue' means in this scientific context. So what does this mean, and how should we adjust our expectations of when this tardy quake will arrive?

Halfspace: a Python package for elastic halfspace calculations

(edited 4 October 2014)

Part 1: Introduction

I've been working the past year and a half on calculating topographic and tectonic stresses. This work has relied heavily on using elastic halfspace approximations, which are quite commonly used in the crustal deformation communities, particularly by geodesists. To this end, I ...