Rocks and Water

Earthquake recurrence and survival analysis: How long should we wait for an overdue earthquake?

Earlier this spring, Dr. Tom Jordan of USC and the Southern California Earthquake Center caused a bit of a stir by claiming that the southern San Andreas fault was 'locked, loaded and ready to roll'. This was interpreted by many as meaning that an earthquake on the fault is 'overdue', although it's not clear what 'overdue' means in this scientific context. So what does this mean, and how should we adjust our expectations of when this tardy quake will arrive?

Halfspace: a Python package for elastic halfspace calculations

(edited 4 October 2014)

Part 1: Introduction

I've been working the past year and a half on calculating topographic and tectonic stresses. This work has relied heavily on using elastic halfspace approximations, which are quite commonly used in the crustal deformation communities, particularly by geodesists. To this end, I ...

AGU and SSA have new open access policies

Open access to scientific publications and datasets is very important for both scientific progress and for the incorporation of scientific knowledge into the public sphere. The reasons for this are manifold, and have been enumerated so vociferously on various blogs, email lists, and internet fora that one fears the spittle ...

Low-angle Normal Fault Likelihood IPython Notebook

This is an IPython Notebook version of a paper I have just submitted to Geophysical Research Letters. This is the complete paper, but with all the code embedded, and is executable. However, it does need a Python module called eq_stats.py as well as some of the typical Python scientific ...