New paper in review on earthquake cycle and slip rate variability

Richard Styron

Around the new year, I wrote a quick blog post to answer for myself a question about how the natural variability in earthquake timing can effect slip rate measurements over different timescales. The results from the blog post demonstrated that there is a lot of slip rate variability over timescales of <5-10 mean earthquake recurrence intervals, but that this progressively decreases and becomes very slight at >20 mean earthquake recurrence intervals.

I wrote a short paper on the topic this spring, and submitted it to Solid Earth. The paper has a little more analysis, including some heuristics for estimating epistemic uncertainty in a slip rate measurement that accounts for the natural variability in earthquake timing. The paper is currently in open discussion and review at Solid Earth Discussions. Please, find it here, download it and comment on it!